114 Part II: Planning Your Software Project The (Apache web server)
114 Part II: Planning Your Software Project The method you use to gather information and identify risks is not as important as the fact that you are obtaining as much information as possible. For these risk identification exercises, put the emphasis on quantity. More is better. If a risk is not identified, it is accepted by default. Brainstorming During the first stage of risk identification, you should brainstorm. The crucial element of a brainstorm is spontaneity. Anything goes; no risk is too far out there. Include any conceivable risk that could threaten the project s success: server crashes, software failures, lost backup, weather, travel delays, meteorites, and so on. Ideally, your brainstorming session should be done in a big meeting with all the key stakeholders present. Trying to handle such an assessment via e-mail can really be a pain. Besides, the synergy of one identified risk can spur another team member to think of another risk. The qualitative risk party is a blast, especially if you have a whiteboard and lots of colorful dry erase markers. Following the Delphi method Another method of identifying project risks is to use the Delphi method. This allows stakeholders to anonymously offer their input into identifying risks. They can send their suggestions via e-mail to one person who will then consolidate the information into one document without naming the source of the information. Ranking risks After you and the key stakeholders identify all the risks you can think of, you need to rank them. We suggest ranking project risks by using a risk impact matrix. You can use two different approaches to risk ranking: Ordinal: This assessment simply ranks risks as high, medium, or low. Most folks use ordinal for the first round of risk analysis. Cardinal: When you use this ranking system, you assign scores with hard numbers, like .67 or .99. With each risk, you and your project team, and sometimes the key stakeholders, need to follow these steps: 1. Evaluate the probability of the risk actually happening and assign that risk a score. 2. Score the impact of each risk. 3. Multiply the probability and the impact to get a risk score. Table 5-1 gives you a quick example of a risk rating matrix. In this example, we used an ordinal scoring method because it s a bit more tangible.
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