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Chapter 5: Planning for Software Project Risks 113 Figure 5-2: Projects are more likely to fail at the beginning than at the end. Project baselineLiklihood of suess Project timeline Managing Risks in Your Organization Every organization has its own approach to risk management. Even yours. We can hear some of you now, But we don t have an approach. We just do whatever. Groovy. That s your approach. Not a really good one, but it is an approach. A no-approach risk management strategy leads to project failures, frustration, surprises, and I-told-you-so s throughout the project. Not to mention all the extra cash and time the risks eat up. Tighter organizations (which, coincidentally, usually aren t tottering on the edge of bankruptcy) have a step-by-step strategy to handling risks. These organizations have procedures, templates, and processes to identify, capture, and asses the risks that threaten the project s success. Identifying risks Regardless of your company s official risk management strategy, you can rely on qualitative risk analysis to get things moving. Qualitative analysis is the process of creating a risk ranking based on all the identified risks within the project. The best way to conduct qualitative risk analysis is for you to invite the project team and all the other key stakeholders to get together for a risk identification party. Alright, it s hardly a party, but it needs to be done on every project.
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112 Part II: Planning Your Software Project Possibility of Occ urr Figure 5-1: Project priority determines a stakeholder s utility function. Severity of Impact to Project Success Mitigating Risks Early On Here s a rule for you to remember for the rest of your life well, for the rest of your life as a project manager: Projects are more likely to fail at the beginning and more likely to succeed at the end. In other words, when a project is first starting out, it faces lots of unknowns that can affect its ability to even get moving. Although a project is more likely to fail at the beginning, the fact that you haven t invested as much in the project at the beginning means that the impact of the failure isn t as great as it would be if you d spent months working on the project before it died its untimely death. Although your project is less likely to fail at the end, the fact that you have already invested so much time and money in the project means that the impact of the failure can be significant. Figure 5-2 shows that as the project moves closer to the end of development, it s more likely to succeed. This rule underscores why software projects (and, really, all projects) usually fail at the beginning, not the end. A failure to capture requirements, develop concepts, and plan, plan, plan are a poor foundation for project success. The project manager with a poor foundation that is hoping for a successful project is kidding himself. Good luck is always for the ill-prepared.
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Chapter 5: Planning for Software Project Risks 111 away from progress, and time devoted to getting a new developer up to speed. If your project has never been attempted before, you risk suffering from the first-time, first-use penalty. This penalty basically means that because it s never been done before there is a higher risk of facing problems you couldn t possibly anticipate. Determining Stakeholder Risk Tolerance A person s willingness to accept risks is called his or her utility function. You don t need to know the details, but the idea of utility function is tied to investment theory. Would you rather invest your hard-earned millions into an initial public offering that is just as likely to earn you billions as it is to lose all of your cash? Or would you prefer to stick with an old, faithful stock that might earn just 6 percent a year? Your willingness to invest in a riskier venture, and the amount you re comfortable investing, describe your utility function. The same theory applies to your stakeholders. You, your project team, and the key stakeholders will be happy to accept some risks and will refuse to accept others. Generally, stakeholders of smaller, lower-priority projects are more willing to accept risks than those involved in high-profile projects. Consider a project in your organization to replace all of the monitors throughout the company. Although the project may be deemed important, it s not likely to affect the success of the day-to-day operations of your organization, so it s not a huge risk on productivity within the organization. Figure 5-1 shows an S-curve. As you can see, the higher the project priority is the lower the utility function is. In other words, the higher the project priority, the more likely you are to reduce risks. The amount of acceptable risks will diminish. Now consider a software project that will create a program to track the workflow from sales, to order fulfillment, to accounting, to billing, and to customer follow-up. This project has a higher impact, if it fails, than a simple project to swap monitors. It s obvious which project your organization would be more risk adverse towards: the software implementation.
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110 Part II: Planning Your Software Project Contrary to what your mom said, ignoring pests doesn t mean that they ll all go away. This plan just doesn t work in project management. Business risks, however, also have some upsides. Sometimes it s worthwhile to accept a risk to save time, reduce costs, or to make people nervous. (Just kidding on the nervous thing; you want to instill confidence in your stakeholders.) A good example of a risk that you may deem acceptable is to move forward with a software implementation even though the application doesn t have a key feature that stakeholders want. You may decide to move forward with the implementation in order to save some project time. The risk is that the stakeholders won t get everything they want exactly when they want it, but the reward, assuming the feature will be available in the next upgrade, is that your project just saved some time in the schedule. Business risks are not bad; it s their impact that has the potential to hurt you or the project. Accepting everyday technology risks with your software project Every software project has risks. Don t think so? Look in the mirror you re a risk to your software project. Your leadership, ability to communicate, ability to get your project team to perform, and more could fill a bucket of risks that s just waiting to spill all over your project. But we know you won t let that happen, right? The real risks we re talking about are built into the nature of the work: technology. Technology changes extremely fast and with that fast change there s opportunity for risk to creep in. Consider these risks in every software project: Speed of technology surpasses demand for your creation. Delays in your schedule shorten the window for the demand of your software. Your programmers ability to learn new programming languages and adapt to new development environments may threaten the project schedule. Your stakeholders may have a tough time explaining what they want the project deliverable to be. Because programmers are in demand, a programmer could leave your project team, putting your project at risk from loss of talent, time
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Chapter 5: Planning for Software Project Risks 109 Dealing with pure risks in software projects All right, we admit that you won t have too many pure risks in software projects. Although some programmers might whine that they re typing their fingers off, aside of the danger of carpal tunnel syndrome, there s really not any risk of loss of life or limb. Some MBA types may argue that you still have pure risks in software projects because folks could steal software, steal hardware, or get electrocuted when they spill their coffee on their PC. Sure. And we may win the lottery if we ever play. For the most part, however, you won t have to worry too much about pure risks unless you re just the worrying type. Just because you likely won t have pure risks in your software project doesn t mean you shouldn t look for pure risks. When you conduct a risk assessment, you should consider the project deliverable. For example, will your software be used in environments where life and limb depend on your software? Consider health care, fire and police stations, and even manufacturing. Assessing business risks Business risks are a big concern for any project manager with an eye towards reality. Business risks are the more common risks you encounter in your project management activities: Employees quit Mistakes are made in the requirements gathering process The software is full of bugs, errors, and failures The scope of the project grows, but the budget (or the timeline) doesn t The expectations of the project time, cost, and scope are not realistic to begin with The project is larger than the capacity of the project team The project manager, sponsor, or other stakeholders are not as knowledgeable as you would hope These are all real-life risks that you have to deal with or they ll deal with you. Just because you choose to ignore a risk doesn t mean it ll go away.
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108 Part II: Planning Your Software Project chapter. The goal of risk management is to identify, quantify, plan for, and then react to the risk potential to keep the risks from affecting the project s success. Identifying Pure and Business Risks When most people think of risks, they have an immediate negative connotation about risk. The risk, however, isn t what makes folks frown; it s the impact of the risk. Risk itself is not really a bad thing. Taking risks can even have a positive impact. Consider a risk that you may get a discount from a vendor because of past orders. Or consider the risk that a change request from the customer allows your project six more weeks of development time. Or consider the risk of a new technology superseding your existing development processes. Positive risks are called risk opportunities. You can t possibly consider every single risk in a project. All projects deal with risks that are usually so far off the risk radar that they aren t even a concern: The company might go out of business An asteroid could crash into the office building Big Foot could appear and take all the back-up tapes The senior developer might move to Hawaii See? These risks are unusual, highly improbable, and are way, way, out there in left field. But all of these are risks you just have to accept them. As a project manager, you must consider the risk result, and you also have to categorize risks. In life and project management there are two types of risks to be concerned with: Pure risks: These risks have no upside, only a downside. Pure risks include things like loss of life or limb, fire, flood, and other bad stuff that nobody likes. Business risks: These risks are the calculated risks you are concerned with in project management. A perfect example of a business risk is using a worker with less experience in order to save money on the project s budget. The risk is that the worker will screw up and your project will be doomed. The reward is that the worker will cost less than the more experienced worker and save the project some cash. An additional reward is that by challenging this employee you will encourage his or her growth and buy in on the project. This worker is more likely to be of greater value to you in future projects.
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Chapter 5 Planning for Software Project Risks In This Chapter Identifying project risks Several software risks to avoid Completing qualitative and quantitative analyses Choosing a software development model Preparing the risk response plan Risk is an uncertain event that could have a positive or negative outcome. Risk is everywhere: whether you re driving, sky diving, crossing the street, trading stocks, or swimming with sharks. When you do something risky, you must calculate whether the potential reward is worth the potential risk. Some things are easy the reward of driving from Point A to Point B is usually considered worth the risk of a traffic accident. For every risk there is some reward. If you re lucky, the reward works in your favor, like buying low and selling high in the stock market. The risk is that you buy a stock and it tanks you took a risk and you lost your investment. One of the toughest jobs for any project manager is managing project risks. In addition to risks that affect your ability to complete your assignments, project risks include the following: Inadequate time for completing the project Inadequate budget for completing the project Unrealistic scope expectations A project team that needs additional time to ramp up development language Stakeholders that do not or cannot provide clear project requirements In software project management, the risks are rampant: time, cost, scope, quality, project team, and so on. We examine each of these risks, and more, in this
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106 Part II: Planning Your Software Project don t forget all the repetition from stakeholders: questions on the project status, budget, schedule, change requests, and more. All of this monotonous, repetitive communication is needed and you re typically at the hub of the communication. Good news! Several programs are available that can help you and your project team automate the communication of the project: Microsoft s Project Server (visit www.office.microsoft.comand click the Project hyperlink) is a server-based system that ties into Microsoft Project, Microsoft Internet Information Server, Microsoft Exchange, and SQL Server, allowing add-on components from third-party vendors. This tool is certainly at the top of the heap; it enables you to publish Web forms that your project team members, key stakeholders, and even vendors can use to report progress, issues, change requests, and just about anything else project related. This information can then be piped into your SQL database to generate reports, statistics, and automate communications by publishing and allowing querying of data to a secured Web site. Pacific Edge (www.pacificedge.com) and Primavera (www. primavera.com) offer many similar features as the ubiquitous Project Server. The goal of any PMIS is to help project managers do their job better, not replace the project manager.
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Chapter 4: Planning for Communications 105 folks that are IT-savvy and will rely heavily on e-mail. If you re presenting formal communications through e-mail, write it just as you d put it in a letter. Leave out the emoticons, jokes, and asides. And then save your e-mail, attachments, and any responses. Modalities for informal communication If you re communicating to stakeholders in an informal setting, here are the types of communication modes you should employ: E-mail. Yep. E-mail can be either formal or informal, depending on the context. You have quick questions for project team members so you zip off an e-mail and they reply. Done. No need for fancy reports, faxes, or detailed discussions. It s always a good idea to keep all project communications, though, even if it s just a quick e-mail. Ad-hoc meetings. Quick hallway meetings, stop-and-chats, quick phone calls, and lunch discussions can be some of the most effective communications you have. The trouble with these meetings is that they can pop up unexpectedly and suck your time away. The other problem with ad- hoc meetings is that the folks you re communicating with may not follow through with the promises made during the discussion. Take care to document the discussion and then follow up with everyone involved if promises were made during ad-hoc meetings. Instant messaging and text messaging: If you have a dispersed team, this mode of communication can be especially useful. It s quick and efficient to communicate through IM or by sending text messages. The only thing you have to be concerned with is the many time zones your stakeholders may reside in. You may not want to text message someone when it s the middle of the night in his or her time zone. Some popular instant messaging programs include AIM (AOL Instant Messenger), Yahoo! Messenger, and Windows Messenger. Coffee talk. Sometimes you need to get your team together for some camaraderie. It doesn t have to be over coffee, of course, but coffee and donuts, pizza, whatever, can help ease the tension of a software project, let the team vent a little about the project if they want, or just let everyone know how much you appreciate their hard work. This is about motivation and team development. Automating communications So much of project management is redundant work. Your project team fills out a form and e-mails it to you. You review the form and plug results into your project management information system (PMIS). From there, you may need to generate more reports, more e-mails, and more communication. And
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104 Part II: Planning Your Software Project Defining Communication Modalities Modality is just a fancy way of clarifying the form communication takes. Some communication should be paper-based, while other communication should be electronic. On other occasions, a formal, face-to-face presentation is the necessary modality. You really need to determine and document in your communication management plan the modality of the communication before the project execution begins. By documenting the modality, you ve set the expectations for what type of communication is needed, when it s needed, and in what format. No assumptions are made between you and the stakeholders as to what information is being exchanged and how it ll be received. Sometimes you have to wear suits and sometimes you get to wear jeans. The occasion dictates what you should wear just as the occasion in your project communication dictates whether the communication should be formal or informal. As a rule, you always present your communications professionally and clearly regardless of the formal and informal boundaries. Modalities for formal communication If you re communicating to stakeholders in a formal setting, here are the types of communication modes you should employ: Presentations: Throughout your software project management career you ll likely have to get up in front of your stakeholders and present the project plan, the status of the project, or serious issues that creep into the project. Sometimes a PowerPoint presentation can help you to make your point, and at other times PowerPoint can be a distraction. The secret to a good presentation is to be prepared, speak with authority, and put your audience at ease. Reports: We once heard a project manager say, If it s in writing, then it s formal communication. We agree with the statement, for the most part. Your reports, from status to quality control, are formal. Take time to ensure the accuracy of the data you present, not to mention your grammar. Conference/phone calls: Some of your stakeholders and team members may be dispersed all over the world, so the most efficient way to communicate with them is via conference calls. When you communicate using the telephone, remember that others cannot see your facial expressions to help determine your emotions. Keep the communication clear and thorough so as to not leave a lot of room for interpretation. E-mail: E-mail can be a form of formal communication in some environments. In software project management you re dealing primarily with
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